Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 1.255308 1.322720 1.392647 1.470764 1.555795 1.645769 1.748463
2025-12-14 1.130040 1.222411 1.322214 1.438662 1.571578 1.719499 1.897892
2025-12-21 1.059588 1.166822 1.285972 1.429326 1.598674 1.794366 2.040608
2025-12-28 1.018744 1.138438 1.274564 1.442653 1.647218 1.891612 2.211250
2026-01-04 0.972379 1.099206 1.246122 1.431356 1.662331 1.946045 2.329546
2026-01-11 0.945932 1.081020 1.240272 1.445143 1.706764 2.037154 2.499035
2026-01-18 0.917136 1.057876 1.226297 1.446781 1.734305 2.106527 2.643142
2026-01-25 0.902906 1.051327 1.231688 1.472109 1.792603 2.218631 2.853737
2026-02-01 0.866614 1.015537 1.198408 1.445224 1.779319 2.231801 2.922799
2026-02-08 0.828177 0.975480 1.157889 1.406576 1.747445 2.216288 2.946897
2026-02-15 0.803901 0.952407 1.138076 1.394149 1.750263 2.249003 3.045059
2026-02-22 0.786653 0.937589 1.128177 1.394231 1.769923 2.306324 3.185056
2026-03-01 0.761786 0.912830 1.105257 1.376821 1.765668 2.330800 3.279418
2026-03-08 0.733694 0.883050 1.074725 1.347687 1.743112 2.326498 3.326424
2026-03-15 0.715357 0.865418 1.059658 1.339238 1.749890 2.366758 3.451315
2026-03-22 0.705827 0.859027 1.059335 1.351299 1.787263 2.456547 3.670609
2026-03-29 0.688901 0.842157 1.044039 1.341076 1.790165 2.491134 3.793922
2026-04-05 0.680912 0.837005 1.044549 1.353551 1.828159 2.584922 4.036764
2026-04-12 0.669642 0.826999 1.037879 1.355033 1.848817 2.650911 4.233693
2026-04-19 0.666045 0.827308 1.045549 1.377934 1.904361 2.780012 4.572607
2026-04-26 0.647455 0.806404 1.022512 1.353625 1.882360 2.772022 4.626606
2026-05-03 0.626289 0.781460 0.993085 1.318638 1.841381 2.727852 4.598872
2026-05-10 0.613440 0.767819 0.979487 1.307378 1.838953 2.752768 4.724227